Food Business News - April 14, 2020 - 26

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Huge corn plantings
may not materialize
Ethanol, coronavirus seen
limiting corn plantings

CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
demand has dropped more than 50% as
Americans shelter at home during the
83,510,000 acres, up 7,410,000 acres, or
pandemic. Use of ethanol is tied directly
10%, but fell within the range of trade
to use of gasoline, which is mandated to
expectations and even slightly below the
contain 10% ethanol.
trade average of 84.9 million acres.
Ethanol producers have shuttered
The corn planting number was the
surprise of the report, although the impact plants in at least 12 states in the past few
weeks as demand and prices plunged.
was mitigated somewhat by the USDA's
Production is down about 33% for the
March 1 corn stocks estimate of 7,952,508
bus, which came in below the average of
trade expectations.
Most in the trade doubt 97 million
acres of corn will be planted.
"I was surprised," said Paul Meyers,
in 1,000 acres
vice president of commodity analysis,
Record high
Foresight Commodity Services, Inc. He
noted that the farmer survey for the report
was conducted by the USDA before the
impact of the coronavirus had been fully
realized (if it has yet), and that the plunge
in ethanol prices and production had not
yet occurred.
Use of corn falls into four main categories: food consistently at 10% of annual
production; exports around 15% but
fluctuating between 13% and 17% the past
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
three years; and feed and ethanol, each
*planting intention
Source: US Department of Agriculture
accounting for about 40% of production
in recent years. The USDA, in its March
World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) report, forecast the
year, and stocks are record high, according
use of corn for feed at 5,525 million bus
to government data. In the latest week,
and for ethanol at 5,425 million bus in the
production was near a decade low.
current 2019-20 marketing year.
Analysts' forecasts for reduced corn
Ethanol futures traded at the
use to manufacture ethanol ranged from
CME Group have hit record lows since
300 million to 500 million bus, or beCOVID-19 slammed the transportation in- tween 5% and 10% of projected use as of
dustry, and since Russia and Saudi Arabia
the March WASDE. In its April 9 WASDE,
got into a crude oil production/price war
the USDA lowered its forecast of corn used
in March, contributing to an oversupply
in the manufacture of ethanol to 5,050
of crude at a time when demand was
million bus, down 375 million bus, or 7%,
plummeting and driving crude oil prices
from March, "based on Energy Informato 18-year lows. Some estimate US fuel
tion Administration data indicating an

26

Food Business News

026_FBN_April14_20.indd 26

96.990*

88.019
94.004
90.167
88.871
89.700

97.291
95.365
90.597

US corn planted area

86.382
88.192
91.936

thanol

MARKET INSIGHT

unprecedented decline in ethanol production and motor gasoline consumption as
the result of COVID-19."
Further, the impact of COVID-19 on
feed demand is uncertain, but analysts
also expect it to take a hit.
"An expectation of reduced meat demand, a lower livestock supply and lower
feed demand, in general, for the latter
half of 2020 seems reasonable," said Todd
Hubbs, an agricultural economist at the
University of Illinois, although he noted
that lower outturn of distillers' dried grain
because of reduced ethanol production
may be offset by increased use of corn.
After a surge in beef and pork prices
in March at the start of the lengthy stay-athome period, USDA beef and pork cutout
values have plunged the past couple of
weeks. In its April 9 WASDE, the USDA
forecast the use of corn for feed in 2019-20
at 5,675 million bus, up 150 million bus,
or 2.7%, from March, based on the lower
March 1 corn stocks estimate.
Based on the Prospective Plantings
report and the USDA's yield projection,
the US 2020 corn crop may approach 16
billion bus, numerous analysts, including
Mr. Meyers and Mr. Hubbs, said. Both
also agreed that would lead to a 2021 corn
carryover at or above 3 billion bus.
"If corn acreage stays at 97 million
acres, cash corn prices under $3 (per
bu) for large areas of the Corn Belt seem
probable over an extended period," Mr.
Hubbs said.
Corn futures at the CME Group on
April 6 were at contract lows with nearby May hitting a 3½-year low of $3.25½
per bu. FBN
Ron Sterk
rsterk@sosland.com
April 14, 2020

4/13/2020 9:29:40 AM



Food Business News - April 14, 2020

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Food Business News - April 14, 2020 - 1
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