Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 7

EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor-in-Chief
L. Joshua Sosland
Editor
Keith Nunes
Executive Editor
Eric J. Schroeder

FROM THE EDITOR

Addressing an imminent and
severe economic downturn

Managing Editor
Monica Watrous
Senior Editors, Markets
Jay S. Sjerven
Ron Sterk
Senior Editor
Jeff Gelski
Associate Editor, Markets
Matt Noltemeyer
Digital Media Editor
Rebekah Schouten
Digital Associate Editor
Sam Danley
Contributing Editor
Donna Berry
Markets, Graphic Designer,
Purchasing Seminar Coordinator
Christina Sullivan

PUBLISHING STAFF
Publisher
Mike Gude
Associate Publishers
David DePaul
Bruce Webster
Matt O'Shea
Sales Associate
Tom Huppe
Director of Audience Development
Michael Barbee
Audience Development Analyst
Dustin Pickman
Audience Database Specialist
Lindsey Sheridan
Audience Development Coordinator
Carlea Schuler
Director of Digital Media
Jon Hall
Digital Advertising Manager
Carrie Fluegge
Advertising Manager
Nora Wages
Advertising Coordinator
Annie Fournier
Design Services Manager
Elisabeth Spillman
Design Services Assistant Manager
Ryan Alcantara
Production Specialist
Marj Potts
Senior Design Consultant
Becky White
Promotions Manager
Jim White
Promotions Media Designer
Abby Chronister
Sales Coordinator
Whitney Hartman

CORPORATE
Chairman and CEO
Charles S. Sosland
President
L. Joshua Sosland
Chief Financial and
Administrative Officer
Staci Greco
Chief Operating Officer
and Executive Editor
Meyer Sosland
Chief Marketing Officer
Jim Saladin

April 28, 2020

AN ECONOMIC RECESSION OF UNKNOWN
length and severity will accompany the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The downturn will
lead to a shift of consumer purchasing patterns
that may be similar to those during the Great
Recession that began in December 2007. Food
and beverage companies currently in the throes
of significant retail demand acceleration must
prepare for what comes next.
The consultancy Deloitte has called
COVID-19 an "external shock" with the potential
to upend the trajectory of the US economy. In a
March 27 article, Daniel Bachman, PhD, Deloitte's senior manager in charge of US economic
forecasting, highlighted four ways the shock will
affect the US economy, including through the
knock-on effects of a downturn in the global economy; a global decline in commodity prices, most
notably crude oil; through an expected decline in
first-quarter and second-quarter GDP; and a steep
downturn in financial markets.
Dr. Bachman outlined three scenarios for
how the US economy could play out in connection with COVID-19. The first two assume the
outbreak begins to recede by the beginning of
May, and people return to normal activities by
the late spring and summer. In the first scenario,
GDP falls by more than twice the amount of the
average postwar recession but begins to recover
due to aggressive monetary and fiscal policy in
late 2020 as the virus is brought under control.
The second scenario features a plunge in
economic activity that uncovers a weak financial structure in some economies and business
sectors, especially those with substantial debt
burden. The economy would not emerge from
recession until mid-2021.
The last, worst-case scenario projects the
US economy struggles to recover from the initial
recession as regional outbreaks of COVID-19
continue for about two years. Each regional outbreak is accompanied by interruptions in economic activity. Even after the virus is brought
under control, consumers and businesses
remain wary and limit making major expenditures. As a result, economic growth is slow in
2021 and 2022, but accelerates in 2023.
What is clear from each scenario is the US
economy is already in recession and its impact

will alter consumer purchasing patterns. The
remaining question is, for how long?
Many food and beverage manufacturers as
well as retailers have benefited from the excessive pantry loading that took place when stayat-home orders went into effect nationwide.
But as the crisis continues, the halt in economic

An economic recession
of unknown length
and severity will
accompany the
coronavirus outbreak.
activity will push large swaths of US consumers
into a pattern of cautious buying.
The market researcher Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) is already seeing recessionary
consumer behaviors starting to take hold. In an
April 17 report, IRI said during the Great Recession consumers bought more private label, tried
lower-priced brands, bought smaller quantities
of favorite treats and generally reduced spending on non-essentials. Consumer responses
to IRI surveys indicate the same behaviors are
starting to emerge.
A post-COVID economy is going to be
different from earlier recessions. Until there is
a vaccine, consumers say they will continue to
social distance and gather in places like restaurants less often. The use of e-commerce and
click-and-collect will continue to grow as more
people become familiar with the convenience of
the services.
But such changes
in how people shop will
have little effect on what
people buy. The Great
Recession may provide a
rough roadmap for what
comes next. FBN
Keith Nunes
knunes@sosland.com

We're eager to receive your feedback:
E-mail editor@sosland.com or write to us at:
Food Business News, 4801 Main Street, Suite 650, Kansas City, Mo, 64112
Food Business News

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Food Business News - April 28, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - April 28, 2020

Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 2
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 3
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 4
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 5
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 6
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 7
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 8
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 9
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 10
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 11
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 12
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 13
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 14
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 15
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 16
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 17
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 18
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 19
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 20
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 21
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 22
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 23
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 24
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 25
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 26
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 27
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 28
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 29
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 30
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 31
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 32
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 33
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 34
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 35
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 36
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 37
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 38
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 39
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 40
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 41
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 42
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 43
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 44
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 45
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 46
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 47
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 48
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 49
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 50
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 51
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Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 53
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 54
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 55
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 56
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Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 58
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Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 60
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Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 62
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 63
Food Business News - April 28, 2020 - 64
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