Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 32

MARKET INSIGHT

Ingredient prices suggest
recovery has begun
©RICKA_KINAMOTO - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

But comeback process expected
to be slow and long

A

noticeable change in attitude,
pricing and demand was indicated
by ingredient processors in early
May, signaling a shift from panic buying
while sheltering at home by consumers to
one of anticipation of reopening awayfrom-home venues. Some price changes
were dramatic, just as when the process
began in late March, while others were
more subtle, and not all occurred simultaneously, but there was a shift, especially
evident in dairy, eggs and meat. But no
one is promoting the idea all will be back
to normal any time soon.
Prices for some products rose sharply
then tumbled and have begun to come
back up, while others initially plummeted
and have begun to show life. An example
of the latter is the dairy market, especially
butter and cheese demand and prices. CME
Group butter and cheese prices had been
fluctuating since the first of the year until
mid-March, when the plunge began. Butter
values dropped 38% from the week ended
March 13 to April 24, and cheddar cheese
prices fell 33% (barrels) and 45% (blocks)
between March 13 and April 17. By May 15,
butter prices had risen 44% from their low,
cheddar barrels were up 72%, and blocks
had surged 76%. Changes in dry dairy products were far less pronounced because they
depend much less on the foodservice sector
than do butter and cheese.
The resurgence in butter and cheese
values was attributed to reduced milk
supplies (farmers had been forced to dump
millions of gallons of milk during the
shelter-at-home period) and to an uptick in
foodservice demand as restaurants prepared
to reopen from around May 15 forward.
32

Food Business News

Volatility in eggs was perhaps most
pronounced. Grade A large retail eggs
tripled in price to record highs over $3 a
dozen (on the wholesale level) in the four
weeks ended April 3, only to plunge 66% the
following four weeks before leveling. Panic
buying drove prices up, and then ample
supplies from a market that had too many
eggs before the pandemic along with limits
on retail purchases drove prices down.
Liquid whole egg prices rose modestly
during the retail run-up but then plunged
to historic lows in the first half of April
as retail demand idled, excess eggs were
shifted to breakers and foodservice demand
all but disappeared in some cases. As calm
settled into the retail environment, flock
culling reduced the supply of eggs and a few
foodservice orders began to come in, liquid
whole egg then surged 180% in the first two
weeks of May.
The meat situation developed slightly
later and still is evolving but was no less
dramatic. At one point in April about 40%
of US beef and pork processing capacity
was offline. The US Department of Agriculture's beef cutout value - a measure of
wholesale prices - more than doubled to a
record $475.39 per cwt from April 10 to May
12. The pork cutout value jumped 130% to
a high of $120.95 per cwt from April 10 to
May 11. Wholesale meat prices since have
retreated modestly as processing plants
reopen intermittently and restrictions on
consumer meat purchases were put in
place at retail. Still, wholesale red meat
prices are up sharply from a year ago.
The USDA estimated US April beef production dropped 21% from April 2019, pork
outturn was down 11%, broiler processing

was down 2% and turkey production was
down 8%. That followed record high beef
and pork outturn in March.
Memorial Day typically is considered
the kickoff to the summer grilling season.
This year, midweek Kansas City supermarket flyers carried a single advertisement for
hamburger patties and a couple for pork
spareribs but none for regular ground beef,
steak or chicken ahead of Memorial Day.
So what lies ahead? The easy answer
is: no one knows as this is new to everyone.
It certainly is complicated, with the loss of
demand by sector (foodservice versus retail) and with negative price impact at the
producer level but higher retail prices.
Many of the changes are seen as
temporary, for an undetermined period.
For example, the table egg laying flock was
down 3.5% year-over-year in March, but the
USDA said the reduction has stopped and
egg production already is back on the rise.
The USDA in its May 12 supplyand-demand report lowered from April
its forecast for 2020 red meat production
by 6% and broilers by 4.4%. Prices paid
to farmers for cattle, hogs and broilers
already were down from 2019, but cattle
and broiler price forecasts were lowered
further.
At the same time, the USDA forecast
record high red meat production and higher meat prices in 2021, an indication that at
least the federal government expects some
return to normalcy. But much of the food
industry seems a bit more cautious, and
consumer reaction remains to be seen. FBN
Ron Sterk
rsterk@sosland.com
May 26, 2020



Food Business News - May 26, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - May 26, 2020

Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 2
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 3
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 4
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 5
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 6
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 7
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 8
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 9
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 10
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 11
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 12
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 13
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 14
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 15
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 16
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 17
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 18
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 19
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 20
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 21
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 22
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 23
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 24
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 25
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 26
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 27
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 28
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 29
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 30
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 31
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 32
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 33
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 34
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 35
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 36
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 37
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 38
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 39
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 40
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 41
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 42
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 43
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 44
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 45
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 46
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 47
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 48
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 49
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 50
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 51
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 52
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 53
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 54
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 55
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 56
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 57
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 58
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 59
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 60
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 61
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 62
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 63
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 64
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 65
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 66
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 67
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 68
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 69
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 70
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 71
Food Business News - May 26, 2020 - 72
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