Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 26

MARKET INSIGHT

SMALLER CROPS,

HIGHER

Fall harvest of corn,
soybeans near early
completion

A

s the harvests of smaller-than-expected but still large US 2020
soybean and corn crops neared
completion last week, prices hovered at
multi-year highs after the US Department
of Agriculture on Nov. 10 cut production
and carryover forecasts for both crops.
The USDA estimated 2020 US soybean
production at 4,170 million bus, down 2.3%
from its October forecast but up 17% from
2019 and the fourth largest crop on record if
realized. Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2021,
was forecast at 190 million bus, down 34%
from October and down 64% from 2020.
Corn production in 2020 was estimated at 14,507 million bus, down 1.5% from
the October forecast but up 7% from last
year and still the third largest crop on record. Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2021, was
forecast at 1,702 million bus, down 21%
from October and down 15% from 2020.
The USDA corn and soybean production and carryover forecasts all were below
the average of pre-report trade expectations.
Since Nov. 9, the close prior to the key
USDA reports, nearby soybean futures were
up about 60¢ a bu, or 5%, and at four-year
highs. Nearby corn futures were up about
12¢ a bu, or 3%, and near 15-month highs
early last week. Nearby soybean futures
were up more than 25% from a year ago,
while corn futures were up more than 10%.
26

Food Business News

" Soybeans are in the driver's seat right
now, " said Paul Meyers, vice president of
commodity analysts, Foresight Commodity
Services, Inc., noting that the projected 2021
soybean ending stocks-to-use ratio at 4.2%
is the second lowest on record after 2.6% in
2014, with the possibility of going lower.
Soybean prices have been supported
by ongoing strong domestic demand, large
export sales to China and declining crop
prospects in South America, with Brazil the
leading US competitor in the export market.
The National Oilseed Processors Association last week said October soybean crush
was 185,245,000 bus, a record high for any
month and above all trade expectations.
China has been an active buyer of US
soybeans (as well as corn) throughout the
spring and summer, although sales have
slowed in the past few weeks. Demand
for soybean meal as a source of protein as
well as for corn is soaring as China rapidly
rebuilds its hog herd, which was devastated
by African swine fever a couple years ago.
China typically switches to Brazil as its
major trade source for soybeans during the
winter months once Brazil's harvest starts
early next year. But soybean supplies in Brazil have been tight, and new crop prospects
have been limited by dry weather. Brazil in
fact recently imported a small amount of
soybeans from the United States.
" Soybean prices haven't gone high
enough to ration demand, " Mr. Meyers said.
He noted that export sales commitments already were at 80% of the full-year
US soybean export forecast less than three
months into the marketing year.
" Corn is somewhat following

©DUSTIN KOSTIC - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

PRICES FOR
CORN, SOY
soybeans, " Mr. Meyers said, and he sees
the corn market a bit less bullish than
the soy complex. He believes the USDA's
forecast of 2020-21 corn exports is too low
but will be more than offset by lower use
for feed and ethanol, which he thinks are
forecast too high by the USDA. As a result,
he sees the 2021 corn carryover near 1,850
million bus, about 150 million bus higher
than the USDA forecast.
Despite the bullish scenario, Mr. Meyers sees the potential for nearby soybean
futures to decline 40¢ to 50¢ a bu over the
next couple of months due to profit taking
and price consolidation and as Brazil's
soybean harvest accelerates. However, he
added that if weather problems persist or
intensify in South America, soybean futures may rise to new highs, pulling corn
futures higher in their wake as corn prices
must keep pace with soybeans to ensure
adequate planted area next spring.
The soybean harvest was 96%
completed as of Nov. 15, modestly ahead
of 89% a year ago and 93% as the 2015-19
average for the date, the USDA said in its
weekly Crop Progress report. The corn
crop was 95% harvested, well ahead of 73%
at the same time last year, when adverse
weather delayed some harvest until spring,
and ahead of 87% as the five-year average.
US farmers have enjoyed rising corn
and soybean prices amid a rapid harvest,
which most years would tend to pressure
prices. It's been an unusual year, in more
ways than one. FBN
Ron Sterk
rsterk@sosland.com

November 24, 2020



Food Business News - November 24, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - November 24, 2020

Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 2
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 3
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 4
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 5
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 6
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 7
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 8
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 9
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 10
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 11
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 12
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 13
Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 14
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Food Business News - November 24, 2020 - 65
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