Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 26

WASHINGTON

Restaurant operators
brace for a bitter winter
NRA survey reveals perilous state of industry
©MDYN - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

T

he beleaguered restaurant industry,
already severely damaged from
restrictions on businesses because
of the coronavirus pandemic, was bracing
for a bitter winter.
Vaccines to combat COVID-19 were
being rolled out, but it was expected for the
next several weeks, through much if not
all the winter, pandemic cases and related
deaths may continue to rise. In response,
governments at state, county and local
levels were tightening limits on social gatherings, including indoor restaurant dining.
Outdoor dining on patios, decks and
sidewalks, which in recent months helped
sustain many restaurants whose dining
rooms operated at reduced capacity because of social distancing requirements,
was ending across much if not most of the
country as winter weather takes hold.
Takeout and home delivery remained
viable options, even lifelines, for many but
certainly not all restaurants.
The National Restaurant Association
on Dec. 2, in its fifth industry survey conducted during the pandemic, estimated
more than 110,000 restaurants, or 17% of
all restaurants operating before the pandemic, have closed. Most of the closings
took place early in the pandemic, but the
NRA said 10,000 restaurants have closed
in the last three months alone.
" This means these businesses are
closed on either a temporary or permanent basis, " the NRA survey's summary
said. " It will be some time before it
becomes clear how many of the temporary closures become permanent. Many
restaurant operators are waiting to see if
or when it makes sense to reopen. "
Sean Kennedy, executive vice president of public affairs at the NRA, in a Dec. 7
letter to the leaders of the Senate and House
of Representatives appealing for federal
assistance, observed, " The vast majority
of permanently closed restaurants were
well-established businesses and fixtures in
26

Food Business News

their communities. On average, these restaurants had been in business for 16 years, and
16% had been open for at least 30 years. "
As the NRA looked to the future, its
survey of 6,000 restaurant operators, conducted Nov. 17-30, asked them whether
in the absence of federal assistance they
thought their restaurants would still be
open for business in six months; 37% of
respondents said no.
The survey considered the state of the
restaurant industry as of October. Because
of the surge in COVID-19 cases in the fall,
more stringent restrictions were being
placed on indoor dining and drinking
establishments, so circumstances for most
restaurant operators have only worsened
since the survey was conducted.
The NRA study found consumer
spending in restaurants remained well
below normal levels in October.
" Overall, 79% of restaurant operators said their total dollar sales volume in
October was lower than it was in October
2019, " the study said. " Only 12% reported
higher sales in October. Sales were down
29% on average. "
Restaurant operators reported sales
declines for both full-service and limited-service segments. Sales declines were
the most severe in the case of independent
full-service restaurants, where sales were
down 36% from a year ago.
" The vast majority of restaurant operators do not expect business conditions to
improve in coming months, " the survey said.
Seventy-five percent of operators expected their sales to decrease from current
levels during the next three months. Only
6% of operators expected their sales to
increase from current levels in that span.
A breakdown revealed 83% of
full-service restaurant operators and 67%
of limited-service operators expected
their sales to decrease from October levels
during the next three months.
Already in October, outdoor dining

was beginning to shrink as an option with
49% of operators saying their restaurants
in that month offered outdoor dining compared with 67% in September. Fifty-two
percent of full-service operators said they
offered outdoor dining in October compared with 74% in September. Forty-six
percent of limited-service operators said
they offered outdoor dining in October
compared with 60% in September.
Meanwhile, costs of running restaurants were on the rise with 59% of operators saying labor costs as a percent of sales
were higher than before COVID-19. Only
21% of respondents said labor costs were
lower. Eighty-six percent of operators said
their profit margin was lower than before
COVID-19, and only 6% said their profit
margin was higher.
The survey indicated 36% of operators said they were considering temporarily closing their restaurants until the pandemic is brought under control, including
43% of full-service operators and 28% of
limited-service operators.
" Although many restaurants added
back employees after the initial lockdowns, overall staffing levels remain well
below normal, " the survey found.
Eighty-one percent of operators said
their staffing levels in October were below
what they would have expected in the
absence of COVID-19. Forty-five percent
of respondents said their restaurants were
operating with at least 20% less staff.
Forty-nine percent of operators said
they expected staffing levels to decline in
the next three months with 58% of full-service operators and 40% of limited-service
operators expecting staffing cuts.
The winter of 2021 was expected to exact a heavy toll on the nation's restaurant
industry, especially should federal support
prove to be lacking or too light. FBN
Jay Sjerven
jsjerven@sosland.com
December 22, 2020


http://STOCK.ADOBE.COM

Food Business News - December 22, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - December 22, 2020

Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 2
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 3
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 4
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 5
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