Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 28

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MARKET INSIGHT

Ingredient markets
mixed in trying year

C

hina carried over from 2019 as a
key factor in the soybean, corn
and wheat markets in 2020, but it
was COVID-19 that was the overarching
feature as the year progressed, imparting
uncertainty and volatility into agricultural, equity and financial markets. Some
ingredients fared better than others.
Soybeans have been leading the
major commodity markets higher, pulling
corn up as the latter must remain price
competitive to ensure adequate planted
area next spring, with wheat also receiving spillover support.
The trade war with China was a
dominant market feature in 2019, resulting
in a phase one trade deal and large sales of
soybeans, particularly, but also of corn and
wheat to China in 2020. China had its own
issues as one of the first countries to deal
with the coronavirus and was rebuilding its
hog herd from devastation caused by African
swine fever in the prior couple of years. Rapid recovery in pork production there was a
primary force driving strong protein imports
(soybeans to make soybean meal and certain
dry dairy products, all for protein in hog
feed), which subsequently slowed imports of
US pork as the year progressed.
But it was far more than just China
driving US agricultural markets in 2020. An
initially forecast (in August) record-large
US corn crop was trimmed monthly after
a derecho (also in August) blew through
the Midwest, followed by drought in some
key corn and soybean growing areas in the
United States and other regions around the
world, including Europe and South America.
A record-high US corn production
forecast of 15,278 million bus in August
was reduced by 5% to 14,507 million bus
28

Food Business News

by November, but still was up 7% from
2019. Soybean output, forecast just shy of a
record high at 4,425 million bus in August,
had fallen 6% to 4,170 million bus in November, but still was up 17% from last year
and the fourth largest ever. Total wheat
production, with varying growing seasons,
initially was forecast at 1,824 million bus in
July, ending up 0.1% at 1,826 million bus in
September but down 5% from 2019.
Prices of all three commodities mostly
moved higher. As of mid-December, the
Chicago nearby January soybean future was
up 26% from Dec. 31, 2019, and the March
Chicago corn future was up 10%. March
wheat futures were up 16% from Dec. 31
in Kansas City and were up 7% in Chicago
but were down a fraction in Minneapolis
following a large spring wheat crop.
Soybean meal demand specifically (as
well as soybean exports to make soybean
meal) was a key factor in the soybean
market. The National Oilseed Processors
Association reported its members crushed
a record 185,245,000 bus of soybeans in
October followed by 181,018,000 bus in
November, the third highest ever after October and March 2020. Soybean meal exports,
meanwhile, at 1,081,653 tons in November
were the highest for any month since January 2013. Despite the large amount of soybean oil produced from the strong soybean
crush, tight global vegetable oil supplies
supported the soybean oil market.
Chicago January soybean meal futures
on Dec. 15 were nearly 30% above the Dec.
31, 2019, closing price. The January soybean
oil price was up 14% over the same period.
Another factor in the strong soybean
market was adverse weather in South
America, where Brazil typically is the

Corn, soybeans,
wheat mostly up;
other ingredients
mixed
world's largest soybean exporter and Argentina is the largest soybean meal and oil
exporter. Weather-reduced crops in that
region shifted some demand to the United
States, with Brazil even importing some
soybeans this fall.
The US dollar falling to 2½-year lows
further enhanced export demand, making
US commodities cheaper to buy.
Weather also was a factor in the North
American sugar market, with US 2019-20
beet sugar output down 12% and cane sugar down 6% from 2018-19. Production in
Mexico, the major source of US imported
sugar, was down 18%. As a result, sugar
supplies were short, import quotas were
raised sharply, and spot refined cane sugar
prices were at eight-year highs for about
half the year with spot beet sugar not available until new crop in September.
And then there was COVID-19, which
had a far greater impact on the demand of
food and ingredients than on production,
often shifting demand from foodservice to
retail for at-home consumption. The initial
coronavirus-inspired shelter-at-home period in the spring resulted in surging demand
for food staples such as flour, pasta, sugar,
eggs, dry beans, rice and certain other
items as well as some nonfood items (toilet
paper). Shortly thereafter, fallout from the
lack of travel, closing of or restricted use
of many restaurants and cancellation of
sporting events and other mass gatherings,
devastated the foodservice industry and
ingredients that depend on that sector,
including cheese and butter. Millions of
gallons of milk were dumped in the spring
before production could be adjusted.
Cheese markets were perhaps the
most challenged by COVID-19. CME Group
December 22, 2020


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Food Business News - December 22, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - December 22, 2020

Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 1
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 2
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 3
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 4
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 5
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 6
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 7
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 8
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 9
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 10
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 11
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 12
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 13
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 14
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 15
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 16
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 17
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 18
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 19
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 20
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 21
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 22
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 23
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 24
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 25
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 26
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 27
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 28
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 29
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 30
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 31
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 32
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 33
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 34
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 35
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 36
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 37
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 38
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 39
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 40
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 41
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 42
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 43
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 44
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 45
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 46
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 47
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 48
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 49
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 50
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 51
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 52
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 53
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 54
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 55
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 56
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 57
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 58
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 59
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 60
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 61
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 62
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 63
Food Business News - December 22, 2020 - 64
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