Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 22

MARKET INSIGHT

AMPLE SUPPLIES TRUMP

FROM COVID -19
©PHOTOOPUS - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

Higher production
may offset pent-up
demand in 2021
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1

demand in the second half of the year.
Supplies of soybeans, corn and wheat
are seen as critical to driving prices, with
supplies expected to increase as the result
of higher planted area (although not in
all regions globally) in response to higher
prices. At the same time, demand lost due
to those high prices will be a limiting factor.
Soybeans led the commodity markets
in recent months with the nearby Chicago
future ending 2020 near a 6½-year high
around $13 a bu. The entire soy complex
was driven by strong soybean demand
from China throughout the year, adverse
weather in the US Midwest and in South
America during respective growing
seasons, and a December labor strike in
top soy product exporter Argentina. High
prices are expected to prompt farmers to
boost soybean acreage in 2021.
The US Department of Agriculture,
in its preliminary long-term projections,
forecast soybean planted area at 89 million
acres in 2021, up 5.9 million acres, or 7%,
from 83.1 million acres in 2020. Some
analysts think acreage could jump as much
as 7 million acres. Soybean prices were
forecast to peak between $14 and $16 a bu in
the second quarter of 2021 before retreating
in the second half of the year in part under
normal harvest pressure, especially if the
large acreage increase is realized.
China's January-November imports of
22

Food Business News

US soybeans totaled 20.05 million tonnes,
up 45% from the same period last year, driven by its attempt to meet requirements in
phase one of the trade deal with the United
States and by rapid rebuilding of its African
swine fever-devastated hog herd. Most see
no reason for Chinese purchases to abate in
2021, and some expect even higher sales.
Most analysts expect corn will continue to follow soybeans, but with a less bullish trend. The USDA forecast corn planted
area at 90 million acres, down 1.1% from
2020 (harvested area was forecast flat at
82.5 million acres), mainly losing ground
to more profitable soybeans. But some analysts expect an increase in corn plantings
with futures also near 6½-year highs as
the year ended. Of the three commodities,
COVID-19 likely had the largest domestic
impact on corn due to reduced ethanol
demand. That may reverse but likely not
until the last half of 2021. Corn stocks are
expected to build next year as production
increases and demand for livestock feed
and ethanol remains challenged.
For wheat, the global market remains
more bearish than the domestic market. As a residual exporter of wheat, the
United States remains at the mercy of the
global market, with current-year global
production and carryover forecast record
high. But recent events, including limits
and an export tax on wheat by top exporter Russia, have helped rally the market,
in addition to spillover support from corn
and soybeans. Further, analysts expect
export competitors Canada and Australia
will be unlikely to repeat their huge wheat
production of 2020 (partially offset by a

rebound in European output), helping to
tighten global wheat stocks. The USDA
forecast all wheat planted area at 46 million acres in 2021, up 3.8% from 2020.
Finally, demand for US commodities
has been made less costly for foreign buyers by a weak US dollar, a trend expected
to continue in 2021.
For other ingredients, which generally were more affected by COVID-19induced demand swings that were raw
commodities, a more " normal " year is
expected in 2021.
Domestic sugar prices will be
subdued compared with 2020, when
poor crops in North America sent prices
to eight-year highs. There's no reason to
expect Midwest beet sugar or Northeast
refined cane sugar prices to vary much
from current levels.
Cocoa prices were bounced around
by lower demand due to COVID-19, higher
bean prices as the Ivory Coast and Ghana
implemented a $400-per-tonne living
income differential and contentious
presidential elections in both nations. The
cocoa market should benefit as the world
emerges from the pandemic, but price
gains likely will be limited by expected
strong production in West Africa.
COVID-19 injected significant turbulence into the dairy market in 2020,
especially milk and cheese. Those markets
should see notable recovery as COVID-19
retreats and foodservice demand
re-emerges as the year progresses. FBN
Ron Sterk
rsterk@sosland.com
January 5, 2021



Food Business News - January 5, 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - January 5, 2021

Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 1
Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 1
Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 2
Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 3
Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 4
Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 5
Food Business News - January 5, 2021 - 6
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