Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 20

MARKET INSIGHT
Grains in home stretch of trying year
Fall row crop harvest underway in South, nearing in Midwest
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
western half of the country and in the Upper
Midwest and extreme heat in several
areas have garnered headlines, production
estimates and forecasts have not necessarily
reflected worst-case scenarios, in part
due to irrigation in the driest areas, and
drought-tolerant varieties of some crops.
Drought has devastated many of
the non-irrigated agricultural areas west
of the Rocky Mountains, especially the
Pacific Northwest, and significantly has
reduced US durum and hard red spring
wheat crops in the Upper Midwest and
Canadian Prairies. The USDA forecast US
durum production down 50% from 2020
and hard red spring wheat production
down 41%. If realized, the average durum
yield forecast at 24 bus per acre would
be the lowest since 1988 and the average
yield for spring wheat other than durum
(mostly hard red spring) would be the
lowest since 2002. All-wheat production
was forecast down 7% from 2020, with
winter wheat production up 13% from last
year partially offsetting sharp declines in
spring wheat and durum.
The picture appears less dire for corn
and soybeans, in large part because several
of the largest producing states are east
of the driest areas.
The USDA forecast 2021 US production
of corn at 14,750 million bus, up 4%
from 2020, with both average yields and
harvested area expected up from a year
ago. Production of soybeans was forecast
at 4,339 million bus, up 5% from 2020,
with slightly lower average yields more
than offset by higher harvested area. If
realized, 2021 corn production would be
20
Food Business News
the second highest on record, and soybean
production would be the third highest
ever.
Record-high yields were forecast for
both corn and soybeans in Illinois, Indiana
and Ohio, three of the eight largest-producing
states for both commodities.
But as farmers and traders will attest,
final crop size isn't sure until harvest is
done. And weather will continue to play
Corn crop ratings
good-to-excellent as of Aug. 22
Nebraska
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio
79%
71%
Source: US Department of Agriculture
North Dakota
South Dakota
Minnesota
Iowa
67%
58%
67%
25%
34%
16%
an important role, especially for soybeans.
The USDA lowered its good-to-excellent
ratings for both corn and soybeans as
of Aug. 22. The good-to-excellent rating
for corn was 60%, down from 62% a
week earlier and 64% a year ago, and for
soybeans was 56%, down from 57% the
prior week and 69% a year earlier. There
were distinct differences between ratings,
with numbers in the eastern Corn Belt
(including Illinois, Indiana and Ohio)
above the 18-state aggregate and numbers
in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, North
and South Dakota) well below with North
Dakota the most dire.
Futures prices of major commodities
(corn, wheat, soybeans) have fluctuated
as would be expected during a weather
market, sometimes down sharply one
day when rain falls in a key area then up
sharply the next day on a forecast for dry
weather the next week. While still up
sharply from a year ago, corn, wheat and
soybean prices are off their highs, and
analysts tend to expect further pressure
on corn and soybean prices during the
harvest period. The high prices also have
tended to temper domestic and export
demand, partially offsetting tight supply
situations for most grains.
While drought has been the most
severe in the West where most fruit,
vegetable and nut crops are produced,
many production forecasts are not as low
as expected as many crops are irrigated.
However, with water levels dropping and
some lakes and reservoirs at historically
low levels, there are growing concerns
about whether water for irrigation will be
adequate in 2022 unless rain and winter
snowpack can replenish water supplies.
Most corn, soybeans and wheat are
growing east of the Rocky Mountains
and are not irrigated, depending on the
vagaries of seasonal weather, both in the
United States and globally, some areas of
which also have had weather challenges
this year. FBN
Ron Sterk
rsterk@sosland.com
August 31, 2021
┬ęDUSAN KOSTIC - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

Food Business News - August 31, 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - August 31, 2021

Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - Intro
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 1
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 2
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 3
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 4
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 5
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 6
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 7
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 8
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 9
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 10
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 11
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 12
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 13
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 14
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 15
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 16
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 17
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 18
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 19
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 20
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 21
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 22
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 23
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 24
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 25
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 26
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 27
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 28
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 29
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 30
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 31
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 32
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 33
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 34
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 35
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 36
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 37
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 38
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 39
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 40
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 41
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 42
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 43
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 44
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 45
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 46
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 47
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 48
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 49
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 50
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 51
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 52
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 53
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 54
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 55
Food Business News - August 31, 2021 - 56
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