Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 22

MARKET INSIGHT
Meat prices strong amid good demand
Beef supplies tightening as year progresses
R
ecent reports on morning television
shows and news reports have highlighted
meat prices as the leader
in higher food costs, raising the ire of the
meat industry.
Red meat prices at wholesale and retail
are above year-ago levels as are many other
commodities and ingredients such as basics
like semolina (pasta flour) up 125%, bread
flour up about 35%, some egg and dairy
products up as much as 70%, and refined
cane sugar up 30% and at a 9½-year high,
although prices for some ingredients were
down from highs set a few weeks ago.
Mid-September beef and pork cutout
values, which represent prices at the
wholesale level, reported by the US Department
of Agriculture were up 46% and
20%, respectively, from a year earlier. The
beef cutout value has declined about 10%
from late August, and the pork cutout has
dropped 15% since late July.
The USDA in its September Livestock,
Dairy and Poultry Outlook noted that average
January-August combined wholesale
and retail prices for eggs, beef and pork all
were up from the same period in 2020 and
that farm values of beef and pork also were
higher. Retail prices were up from a year
earlier for all but chicken (wholesale prices
were higher). Retail egg prices for the period
averaged $1.60 per dozen, up 9¢ from
a year earlier (wholesale prices were down
slightly). Beef prices were $6.86 per lb, up
32¢, pork prices averaged $4.33 per lb, up
30¢, and broilers averaged $1.52, down 4¢.
It must be remembered that year-ago
values still were recovering from the aftermath
of significant cattle and hog packing
plant disruptions early in the pandemic.
22
Food Business News
The beef cutout soared to historic highs in
early May 2020 (more than 30% above the
mid-September 2021 value).
Beef and pork supplies are influenced
by several factors, including seasonality and
longer-term production cycles, and prices
are influenced by those supply factors as
well as domestic and export demand.
On the supply side, the USDA in its Outlook
report lowered its 2021 beef production
forecast by 130 million lbs from its August
forecast as lower steer and heifer slaughter
numbers and lighter weights more than offset
increased cow slaughter numbers, with
the latter pointing to lower production going
forward as there will be fewer cows to have
calves. Beef production in 2021 was forecast
up 2.1% from 2020, but production in 2022
was projected down 3.1% from this year. If
realized, it would be the first year-over-year
decline since 2015.
Despite higher beef production this
year, the USDA expects per capita domestic
consumption, forecast at 58.3 lbs, to
drop slightly from 58.4 lbs in 2020 and to
drop further to 56.5 lbs in 2022. Forecast
beef exports, meanwhile, were raised from
August to a record 3,414 million lbs, up
16% from 2020, with 2022 exports forecast
at 3,270 million lbs, down 4.2% from 2021.
July beef exports were up 18% from
July 2020, in part reflecting the largest
ever monthly US beef exports to China
with July shipments eight times the yearago
level. Strong exports to Mexico also
boosted the July 2021 total.
Despite the typical seasonal decline
in beef prices after Labor Day (end of
grilling season), the USDA forecast higher
prices from a year earlier in the last half
of 2021 and into 2022 on continued strong
beef demand.
The 2021 picture for pork also indicated
tightening, but production is expected
to increase in 2022 as pork producers
can adjust much more quickly than beef
producers.
The USDA lowered its 2021 forecast
for US pork production by 85 million lbs
from August with production for the
year down 2% from 2020. But 2022 pork
output was forecast up 1.5% from this
year. August hog slaughter numbers
were down 9% from a year earlier with
average weights down about a lb. Year-ago
numbers are skewed due to COVID-19 as
hog slaughter slowed early in the pandemic
and then picked up as the summer
progressed, with slaughter weights also
higher because hogs were kept on feed
longer waiting for plant capacity.
Slaughter hog prices in 2021 were
forecast by the USDA up 62% from 2020
with last year's pandemic disruption pressuring
prices coupled with lower numbers
this year. Prices were forecast lower in
2022, though, as production rebounds.
Per capita pork consumption in 2021
was forecast at 50.3 lbs, up slightly from the
August forecast but down 3.3% from 2020,
with 2022 consumption rising to 50.9 lbs.
Pork exports in 2021 were forecast at
7,334 million lbs, down 1% from August
but up 0.7% from 2020 due to slower shipments
to China and Hong Kong. Exports in
2022 were forecast to slip to 7,300 million
lbs. FBN
Ron Sterk
rsterk@sosland.com
September 28, 2021
©CINEBERG - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

Food Business News - September 28, 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Food Business News - September 28, 2021

Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - Intro
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 1
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 2
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 3
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 4
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 5
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 6
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 7
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 8
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 9
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 10
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 11
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 12
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 13
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 14
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 15
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 16
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 17
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 18
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 19
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 20
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 21
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 22
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 23
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 24
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 25
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 26
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 27
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 28
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 29
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 30
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 31
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 32
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 33
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 34
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 35
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 36
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 37
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 38
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 39
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 40
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 41
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 42
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 43
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 44
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 45
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 46
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 47
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 48
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 49
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 50
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 51
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 52
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 53
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 54
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 55
Food Business News - September 28, 2021 - 56
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